Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 1 draw and 4 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Elche beat Eibar with a 12.5% chance and Cádiz beat Athletic Club with a 15.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 27 (before the first match) against those on January 12 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 17.5% | 73.5% | +56.0 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 53.6% | 99.0% | +45.4 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 53.2% | 90.1% | +36.9 |
| Huesca | Relegation | 40.3% | 76.6% | +36.3 |
| Osasuna | Relegation | 17.8% | 47.4% | +29.6 |
| Villarreal | Champions League | 19.2% | 47.4% | +28.2 |
| Cádiz | Relegation | 39.0% | 11.5% | −27.4 |
| Getafe | Champions League | 27.7% | 1.8% | −26.0 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 25.8% | 1.1% | −24.8 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 25.8% | 5.9% | −19.9 |
