Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 1 draw and 4 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Huesca beat Real Sociedad with a 22.7% chance, Cádiz beat Granada with a 19.4% chance, and Athletic Club beat Sevilla with a 16.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on April 29 (before the first match) against those on May 3 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huesca | Relegation | 77.7% | 52.0% | −25.8 |
| Real Sociedad | Europa League | 78.6% | 63.4% | −15.2 |
| Villarreal | Europa League | 6.9% | 19.1% | +12.2 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Relegation | 26.3% | 38.2% | +12.0 |
| Real Betis | Conference League | 47.2% | 36.7% | −10.5 |
| Elche | Relegation | 47.7% | 57.4% | +9.7 |
| Real Sociedad | Conference League | 16.8% | 25.5% | +8.8 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 48.8% | 54.5% | +5.6 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 25.0% | 29.8% | +4.8 |
| Sevilla | Champion | 5.0% | 0.3% | −4.7 |
