Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 4 draws and 2 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Eibar beat Getafe with a 19.4% chance and Celta Vigo beat Villarreal with a 15.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on May 3 (before the first match) against those on May 10 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis | Conference League | 36.7% | 62.0% | +25.2 |
| Villarreal | Conference League | 35.5% | 14.5% | −20.9 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 46.5% | 66.4% | +19.9 |
| Villarreal | Europa League | 19.1% | 2.6% | −16.5 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 29.8% | 15.1% | −14.7 |
| Eibar | Relegation | 95.7% | 82.3% | −13.3 |
| Real Sociedad | Europa League | 63.4% | 74.4% | +11.0 |
| Huesca | Relegation | 52.0% | 61.5% | +9.6 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 54.5% | 62.1% | +7.6 |
| Real Betis | Europa League | 17.4% | 23.0% | +5.6 |
