Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 4 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Celta Vigo beat Athletic Club with a 13.5% chance and Cádiz beat Barcelona with a 20.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on November 30 (before the first match) against those on December 7 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 51.7% | 64.7% | +13.1 |
| Celta Vigo | Relegation | 43.4% | 31.7% | −11.7 |
| Osasuna | Relegation | 19.9% | 31.2% | +11.3 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 54.5% | 45.0% | −9.4 |
| Levante | Relegation | 27.3% | 18.0% | −9.4 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 32.1% | 41.3% | +9.2 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 48.4% | 57.3% | +8.9 |
| Real Betis | Relegation | 21.2% | 13.9% | −7.3 |
| Sevilla | Champions League | 41.7% | 35.6% | −6.1 |
| Athletic Club | Relegation | 5.9% | 11.7% | +5.8 |
