Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 2 home wins, 4 draws and 4 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Deportivo Alavés beat Real Madrid with a 9.0% chance and Celta Vigo beat Granada with a 24.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on November 23 (before the first match) against those on November 30 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | Relegation | 57.0% | 43.4% | −13.6 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 42.3% | 54.5% | +12.1 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 63.6% | 51.7% | −11.9 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 38.9% | 48.4% | +9.5 |
| Eibar | Relegation | 24.2% | 16.2% | −8.0 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 16.2% | 8.7% | −7.5 |
| Huesca | Relegation | 49.6% | 57.0% | +7.3 |
| Sevilla | Champions League | 34.5% | 41.7% | +7.3 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Relegation | 25.9% | 18.7% | −7.1 |
| Real Betis | Relegation | 14.4% | 21.2% | +6.8 |
