Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 3 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Betis beat Real Madrid with a 6.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 18 (before the first match) against those on September 21 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 64.4% | 50.7% | −13.7 |
| Málaga | Relegation | 32.5% | 44.7% | +12.2 |
| Real Sociedad | Champions League | 36.7% | 25.2% | −11.5 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 49.7% | 60.3% | +10.6 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 37.7% | 48.2% | +10.6 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 14.5% | 24.1% | +9.6 |
| Levante | Relegation | 18.3% | 9.1% | −9.2 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 17.9% | 8.9% | −9.0 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Relegation | 52.0% | 43.5% | −8.5 |
| Real Betis | Relegation | 20.8% | 12.9% | −7.9 |
