Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 1 draw and 5 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Villarreal beat Real Madrid with a 18.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on January 8 (before the first match) against those on January 15 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés | Relegation | 43.6% | 29.5% | −14.1 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 76.4% | 63.1% | −13.2 |
| Villarreal | Champions League | 18.3% | 29.6% | +11.3 |
| Real Madrid | Europa League | 17.2% | 26.3% | +9.1 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Relegation | 49.0% | 55.7% | +6.7 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 77.9% | 84.4% | +6.4 |
| Sevilla | Champions League | 18.1% | 11.9% | −6.2 |
| Levante | Relegation | 26.2% | 32.3% | +6.1 |
| Las Palmas | Relegation | 83.6% | 88.4% | +4.8 |
| Real Sociedad | Europa League | 12.7% | 8.1% | −4.6 |
