Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 3 draws and 2 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Levante beat Atlético Madrid with a 17.2% chance, Granada beat Sevilla with a 13.8% chance, and Deportivo La Coruña beat Villarreal with a 16.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on May 2 (before the first match) against those on May 8 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Granada | Relegation | 54.9% | <0.1% | −54.9 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 31.1% | 63.5% | +32.4 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 27.6% | <0.1% | −27.6 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 60.7% | 80.2% | +19.4 |
| Getafe | Relegation | 45.0% | 61.9% | +16.9 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 11.7% | 19.9% | +8.1 |
| Sevilla | Europa League | 7.6% | 0% | −7.6 |
| Sporting Gijón | Relegation | 67.8% | 74.6% | +6.8 |
| Celta Vigo | Europa League | 95.7% | 100% | +4.3 |
| Athletic Club | Europa League | 96.7% | 100% | +3.3 |
