Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, no draws and 4 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Getafe beat Deportivo La Coruña with a 19.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on April 25 (before the first match) against those on May 2 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 10.2% | 31.1% | +21.0 |
| Sevilla | Europa League | 28.0% | 7.6% | −20.4 |
| Getafe | Relegation | 63.5% | 45.0% | −18.5 |
| Athletic Club | Europa League | 78.4% | 96.7% | +18.4 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 51.4% | 60.7% | +9.4 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 36.4% | 27.6% | −8.8 |
| Celta Vigo | Europa League | 87.4% | 95.7% | +8.3 |
| Villarreal | Champions League | 93.8% | >99.9% | +6.3 |
| Villarreal | Europa League | 6.3% | <0.1% | −6.2 |
| Celta Vigo | Champions League | 4.4% | 0% | −4.4 |
