Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 4 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Elche beat Athletic Club with a 11.3% chance and Córdoba beat Rayo Vallecano with a 18.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on January 5 (before the first match) against those on January 12 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | Relegation | 70.9% | 56.6% | −14.3 |
| Córdoba | Relegation | 53.0% | 39.7% | −13.3 |
| Sevilla | Champions League | 43.7% | 54.6% | +10.9 |
| Almería | Relegation | 29.2% | 38.8% | +9.6 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 83.1% | 75.4% | −7.7 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 15.9% | 8.2% | −7.7 |
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 15.1% | 21.8% | +6.7 |
| Getafe | Relegation | 17.9% | 23.9% | +6.0 |
| Sevilla | Europa League | 41.2% | 36.4% | −4.8 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 55.7% | 60.1% | +4.4 |
