Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 2 draws and 5 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Almería beat Celta Vigo with a 13.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on December 15 (before the first match) against those on February 4 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante | Relegation | 16.1% | 44.8% | +28.6 |
| Villarreal | Europa League | 38.4% | 60.9% | +22.5 |
| Almería | Relegation | 55.3% | 36.1% | −19.2 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 71.7% | 86.7% | +15.0 |
| Sevilla | Europa League | 35.1% | 49.5% | +14.4 |
| Athletic Club | Europa League | 12.2% | 0.8% | −11.4 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Relegation | 38.1% | 27.5% | −10.5 |
| Valencia | Europa League | 36.9% | 47.3% | +10.3 |
| Getafe | Relegation | 12.7% | 23.0% | +10.3 |
| Málaga | Champions League | 12.8% | 2.6% | −10.2 |
