Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 4 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Villarreal beat Atlético Madrid with a 20.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on December 8 (before the first match) against those on December 15 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | Champion | 52.5% | 66.1% | +13.6 |
| Villarreal | Champions League | 21.5% | 32.2% | +10.7 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Relegation | 48.6% | 38.1% | −10.5 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 82.1% | 71.7% | −10.5 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 30.6% | 39.5% | +8.9 |
| Sevilla | Champions League | 53.7% | 44.8% | −8.8 |
| Almería | Relegation | 47.4% | 55.3% | +7.9 |
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 14.1% | 21.6% | +7.5 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 30.5% | 23.5% | −6.9 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 12.5% | 6.5% | −6.0 |
