Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 3 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Sociedad beat Atlético Madrid with a 19.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 4 (before the first match) against those on March 11 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | Champions League | 17.6% | 31.5% | +13.8 |
| Mallorca | Relegation | 62.8% | 49.4% | −13.4 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 23.8% | 13.5% | −10.3 |
| Celta Vigo | Relegation | 49.8% | 59.5% | +9.7 |
| Athletic Club | Relegation | 11.2% | 4.9% | −6.3 |
| Málaga | Champions League | 35.8% | 29.9% | −5.9 |
| Real Betis | Europa League | 32.2% | 37.7% | +5.5 |
| Sevilla | Europa League | 10.5% | 5.4% | −5.0 |
| Osasuna | Relegation | 12.8% | 17.7% | +4.9 |
| Levante | Europa League | 11.9% | 7.0% | −4.9 |
