Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Sociedad beat Valencia with a 21.6% chance and Real Valladolid beat Sevilla with a 20.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on November 26 (before the first match) against those on December 3 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 21.6% | 12.4% | −9.3 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 71.0% | 80.1% | +9.2 |
| Málaga | Champions League | 38.9% | 29.9% | −8.9 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 16.6% | 9.1% | −7.5 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Relegation | 47.4% | 54.2% | +6.8 |
| Real Sociedad | Europa League | 13.1% | 19.7% | +6.7 |
| Osasuna | Relegation | 23.1% | 16.6% | −6.4 |
| Real Betis | Champions League | 15.7% | 21.8% | +6.1 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 83.7% | 89.6% | +5.9 |
| Real Sociedad | Champions League | 5.5% | 11.0% | +5.5 |
