Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 1 draw and 6 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Getafe beat Athletic Club with a 22.7% chance and Sevilla beat Atlético Madrid with a 23.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 25 (before the first match) against those on September 28 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 54.8% | 39.4% | −15.4 |
| Málaga | Relegation | 59.1% | 45.1% | −14.0 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 40.9% | 50.2% | +9.3 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 16.0% | 8.0% | −8.0 |
| Sevilla | Champions League | 38.6% | 45.9% | +7.4 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champions League | 14.4% | 8.5% | −5.9 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 37.1% | 42.8% | +5.7 |
| Espanyol | Champions League | 12.5% | 7.2% | −5.3 |
| Getafe | Relegation | 12.7% | 7.6% | −5.1 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 62.1% | 67.1% | +5.0 |
