Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 2 draws and 4 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Sporting Gijón beat Mallorca with a 6.7% chance and Málaga beat Recreativo Huelva with a 20.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 28 (before the first match) against those on October 5 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Gijón | Relegation | 73.0% | 55.1% | −17.9 |
| Málaga | Relegation | 45.1% | 27.5% | −17.6 |
| Recreativo Huelva | Relegation | 29.6% | 43.6% | +14.0 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 42.8% | 55.8% | +13.0 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 39.4% | 27.0% | −12.4 |
| Sevilla | Champions League | 45.9% | 58.3% | +12.3 |
| Mallorca | Champions League | 20.8% | 10.9% | −9.9 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 67.1% | 59.4% | −7.6 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 50.2% | 57.4% | +7.2 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 24.0% | 17.1% | −6.9 |
