Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Sporting Gijón beat Osasuna with a 20.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 1 (before the first match) against those on March 8 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Gijón | Relegation | 32.7% | 13.7% | −19.0 |
| Osasuna | Relegation | 34.5% | 47.2% | +12.7 |
| Numancia | Relegation | 87.3% | 77.1% | −10.2 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 17.0% | 7.4% | −9.6 |
| Getafe | Relegation | 15.0% | 23.2% | +8.3 |
| Málaga | Europa League | 24.2% | 32.3% | +8.1 |
| Valencia | Europa League | 33.1% | 25.2% | −7.9 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 18.6% | 11.3% | −7.3 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 80.9% | 88.1% | +7.2 |
| Recreativo Huelva | Relegation | 15.1% | 21.5% | +6.4 |
