Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Valladolid beat Atlético Madrid with a 16.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on January 25 (before the first match) against those on February 1 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | Champions League | 34.4% | 47.1% | +12.7 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 37.6% | 26.8% | −10.8 |
| Numancia | Relegation | 46.3% | 57.0% | +10.7 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champions League | 10.5% | 19.7% | +9.2 |
| Mallorca | Relegation | 48.7% | 57.4% | +8.7 |
| Osasuna | Relegation | 67.3% | 58.7% | −8.7 |
| Villarreal | Champions League | 41.5% | 32.9% | −8.6 |
| Sporting Gijón | Relegation | 18.7% | 10.4% | −8.2 |
| Sevilla | Champions League | 67.0% | 60.0% | −7.0 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Europa League | 20.5% | 27.1% | +6.7 |
