Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 4 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Recreativo Huelva beat Mallorca with a 16.6% chance and Sevilla beat Real Madrid with a 23.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on November 30 (before the first match) against those on December 7 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 61.0% | 48.0% | −13.0 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 34.5% | 47.2% | +12.7 |
| Sevilla | Champions League | 42.7% | 55.4% | +12.7 |
| Recreativo Huelva | Relegation | 66.1% | 53.8% | −12.3 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 61.2% | 72.5% | +11.3 |
| Numancia | Relegation | 54.0% | 43.7% | −10.3 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 55.4% | 45.6% | −9.8 |
| Mallorca | Relegation | 15.8% | 24.6% | +8.8 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champions League | 14.7% | 21.2% | +6.5 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 9.9% | 4.6% | −5.3 |
