Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 2 draws and 4 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Atlético Madrid beat Barcelona with a 13.3% chance, Celta Vigo beat Racing Santander with a 24.9% chance, and Osasuna beat Sevilla with a 19.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on January 29 (before the first match) against those on February 5 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | Champions League | 40.8% | 22.5% | −18.2 |
| Osasuna | Champions League | 41.5% | 58.0% | +16.5 |
| Málaga | Relegation | 54.2% | 42.6% | −11.6 |
| Villarreal | Champions League | 38.0% | 27.1% | −10.8 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 74.6% | 83.5% | +9.0 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champions League | 17.6% | 9.3% | −8.3 |
| Real Sociedad | Relegation | 27.7% | 19.6% | −8.0 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 95.7% | 87.8% | −8.0 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 74.0% | 81.8% | +7.7 |
| Athletic Club | Relegation | 26.7% | 34.4% | +7.6 |
