Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 4 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Oviedo beat Rayo Vallecano with a 19.1% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 11 (before the first match) against those on March 18 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oviedo | Relegation | 36.9% | 17.4% | −19.5 |
| Mallorca | Champions League | 30.9% | 44.7% | +13.8 |
| Racing Santander | Relegation | 69.3% | 79.4% | +10.1 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 67.8% | 60.4% | −7.4 |
| Barcelona | Europa League | 26.3% | 32.7% | +6.4 |
| Villarreal | Europa League | 29.1% | 35.5% | +6.4 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 89.0% | 82.7% | −6.3 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Europa League | 25.3% | 19.6% | −5.6 |
| Valencia | Europa League | 10.0% | 15.5% | +5.5 |
| Mallorca | Europa League | 46.6% | 41.1% | −5.4 |
