Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 3 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Celta Vigo beat Real Valladolid with a 24.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 4 (before the first match) against those on March 11 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander | Relegation | 79.2% | 69.3% | −9.9 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Europa League | 17.9% | 25.3% | +7.4 |
| Málaga | Europa League | 11.3% | 18.5% | +7.2 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 73.8% | 67.8% | −6.0 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Europa League | 13.4% | 8.0% | −5.4 |
| Real Zaragoza | Europa League | 10.5% | 5.1% | −5.4 |
| Athletic Club | Europa League | 16.7% | 11.7% | −5.0 |
| Barcelona | Europa League | 21.8% | 26.3% | +4.5 |
| Numancia | Relegation | 44.0% | 48.5% | +4.5 |
| Celta Vigo | Europa League | 4.9% | 8.9% | +4.0 |
