Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Villarreal beat Rayo Vallecano with a 17.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on January 24 (before the first match) against those on January 28 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | Champion | 58.6% | 73.9% | +15.3 |
| Real Sociedad | Relegation | 74.5% | 60.9% | −13.6 |
| Racing Santander | Relegation | 69.7% | 82.3% | +12.5 |
| Numancia | Relegation | 38.7% | 50.1% | +11.3 |
| Osasuna | Relegation | 61.8% | 68.7% | +6.9 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Champions League | 16.7% | 10.8% | −5.9 |
| Real Oviedo | Relegation | 11.8% | 6.0% | −5.7 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champion | 18.9% | 13.2% | −5.7 |
| Villarreal | Europa League | 7.6% | 13.2% | +5.6 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 71.9% | 66.5% | −5.4 |
