Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 2 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Valencia beat Atlético Madrid with a 24.1% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on January 24 (before the first match) against those on January 31 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 41.5% | 25.9% | −15.6 |
| Celta Vigo | Champions League | 66.4% | 53.8% | −12.6 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 48.1% | 60.5% | +12.4 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 41.5% | 50.9% | +9.4 |
| Celta Vigo | Champion | 23.2% | 14.3% | −8.9 |
| Real Sociedad | Champions League | 22.3% | 14.3% | −8.0 |
| Valencia | Champion | 11.5% | 18.3% | +6.7 |
| Extremadura | Relegation | 54.5% | 48.3% | −6.2 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 9.2% | 4.0% | −5.2 |
| Real Zaragoza | Champions League | 10.7% | 5.7% | −5.0 |
