Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 3 home wins, 3 draws and 5 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Rayo Vallecano beat Atlético Madrid with a 14.8% chance and Celta Vigo beat Real Sociedad with a 19.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 21 (before the first match) against those on October 23 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 23.8% | 12.2% | −11.6 |
| Sevilla | Relegation | 30.3% | 37.6% | +7.3 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 57.4% | 63.9% | +6.5 |
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 16.1% | 9.7% | −6.4 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 36.3% | 42.5% | +6.1 |
| Logroñés | Relegation | 42.2% | 48.1% | +5.9 |
| Real Zaragoza | Relegation | 26.7% | 32.6% | +5.9 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 37.5% | 43.4% | +5.9 |
| Celta Vigo | Relegation | 11.4% | 5.6% | −5.7 |
| Real Sociedad | Europa League | 18.2% | 12.8% | −5.3 |
