Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 8 home wins, 3 draws and no away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Extremadura beat Real Zaragoza with a 22.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 13 (before the first match) against those on October 21 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | Relegation | 25.3% | 14.2% | −11.0 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 29.6% | 37.5% | +7.9 |
| Real Sociedad | Champions League | 18.7% | 11.2% | −7.6 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 15.8% | 8.3% | −7.5 |
| Logroñés | Relegation | 35.7% | 42.2% | +6.4 |
| Real Zaragoza | Relegation | 21.2% | 26.7% | +5.4 |
| Compostela | Relegation | 15.5% | 20.4% | +4.9 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champions League | 24.1% | 29.0% | +4.9 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 19.3% | 23.8% | +4.5 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 15.0% | 19.2% | +4.2 |
