Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 2 home wins, 5 draws and 4 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Logroñés beat Valencia with a 11.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 30 (before the first match) against those on October 3 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logroñés | Relegation | 38.6% | 24.9% | −13.7 |
| Athletic Club | Relegation | 17.8% | 27.8% | +9.9 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 26.0% | 34.7% | +8.7 |
| Celta Vigo | Relegation | 18.4% | 12.0% | −6.4 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 15.9% | 9.5% | −6.4 |
| Real Betis | Champions League | 15.9% | 21.9% | +6.0 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 13.8% | 19.8% | +6.0 |
| Racing Santander | Relegation | 24.2% | 18.5% | −5.8 |
| Real Sociedad | Champions League | 9.4% | 15.1% | +5.7 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 47.8% | 42.5% | −5.3 |
