Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 6 home wins, 4 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Celta Vigo beat Real Valladolid with a 22.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on May 19 (before the first match) against those on May 26 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation play-off | 21.8% | 35.4% | +13.6 |
| Sporting Gijón | Relegation | 24.3% | 12.4% | −11.9 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 6.0% | 17.1% | +11.1 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 94.0% | 82.9% | −11.1 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 9.9% | 19.3% | +9.4 |
| Celta Vigo | Relegation play-off | 9.5% | 2.1% | −7.4 |
| Sporting Gijón | Relegation play-off | 31.6% | 26.5% | −5.1 |
| Celta Vigo | Relegation | 5.0% | 0.2% | −4.8 |
| Hércules | Relegation | 95.5% | 99.6% | +4.1 |
| Extremadura | Relegation | 66.4% | 70.3% | +4.0 |
