Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 4 home wins, 1 draw and 6 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Sociedad beat Valencia with a 21.6% chance, Real Oviedo beat Real Valladolid with a 23.6% chance, and Real Zaragoza beat Sevilla with a 23.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 2 (before the first match) against those on September 9 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 38.0% | 23.2% | −14.8 |
| Hércules | Relegation | 42.1% | 53.9% | +11.8 |
| Real Oviedo | Relegation | 24.7% | 14.2% | −10.5 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 21.9% | 11.6% | −10.4 |
| Racing Santander | Relegation | 20.7% | 11.5% | −9.2 |
| Athletic Club | Relegation | 29.0% | 20.5% | −8.4 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 17.3% | 9.6% | −7.7 |
| Real Sociedad | Champions League | 15.4% | 21.6% | +6.2 |
| Real Betis | Champions League | 17.2% | 23.2% | +6.0 |
| Extremadura | Relegation | 77.6% | 83.3% | +5.7 |
