Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 3 home wins, 4 draws and 4 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Deportivo La Coruña beat Atlético Madrid with a 18.8% chance, Logroñés beat Compostela with a 11.3% chance, and Sevilla beat Tenerife with a 15.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 9 (before the first match) against those on September 16 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 57.0% | 41.1% | −15.9 |
| Logroñés | Relegation | 61.4% | 48.5% | −12.9 |
| Hércules | Relegation | 53.9% | 66.3% | +12.3 |
| Athletic Club | Relegation | 20.5% | 30.2% | +9.7 |
| Tenerife | Champions League | 30.5% | 21.3% | −9.2 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 23.2% | 14.7% | −8.5 |
| Extremadura | Relegation | 83.3% | 90.6% | +7.4 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champions League | 5.7% | 12.9% | +7.2 |
| Sevilla | Relegation | 15.7% | 9.4% | −6.3 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Europa League | 9.1% | 14.5% | +5.4 |
