Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 4 home wins, 4 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Sociedad beat Tenerife with a 23.8% chance and Hércules beat Barcelona with a 10.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on January 6 (before the first match) against those on March 6 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | Relegation | 41.8% | 85.5% | +43.6 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 45.4% | 85.1% | +39.6 |
| Extremadura | Relegation | 96.9% | 66.5% | −30.4 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 70.4% | 96.1% | +25.7 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 30.6% | 5.7% | −24.9 |
| Logroñés | Relegation | 73.0% | 48.6% | −24.4 |
| Real Zaragoza | Relegation | 46.1% | 22.5% | −23.7 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 59.3% | 36.3% | −23.0 |
| Espanyol | Relegation | 6.2% | 28.5% | +22.3 |
| Real Madrid | Europa League | 21.8% | 3.7% | −18.0 |
