Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 5 home wins, 2 draws and 4 away wins. 4 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Madrid beat Atlético Madrid with a 24.2% chance, Extremadura beat Celta Vigo with a 13.0% chance, Sporting Gijón beat Rayo Vallecano with a 21.1% chance, and Barcelona beat Real Betis with a 24.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on January 13 (before the first match) against those on January 20 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | Champions League | 45.8% | 61.8% | +15.9 |
| Real Betis | Champions League | 28.7% | 16.3% | −12.3 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 68.5% | 80.7% | +12.2 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 45.3% | 56.4% | +11.2 |
| Real Sociedad | Europa League | 23.0% | 33.6% | +10.6 |
| Hércules | Relegation | 71.5% | 61.4% | −10.1 |
| Sporting Gijón | Relegation | 25.9% | 16.3% | −9.6 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champions League | 30.1% | 20.7% | −9.3 |
| Sevilla | Relegation | 33.7% | 41.6% | +7.9 |
| Real Betis | Champion | 12.2% | 4.7% | −7.5 |
