Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 4 home wins, 2 draws and 5 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Valladolid beat Celta Vigo with a 23.3% chance and Compostela beat Espanyol with a 19.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on December 23 (before the first match) against those on March 5 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | Champion | 40.3% | 87.0% | +46.7 |
| Sevilla | Relegation | 41.5% | 86.8% | +45.3 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 64.3% | 96.7% | +32.5 |
| Extremadura | Relegation | 94.7% | 68.1% | −26.6 |
| Espanyol | Relegation | 4.1% | 28.2% | +24.1 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champions League | 42.0% | 17.9% | −24.1 |
| Real Madrid | Europa League | 25.5% | 3.2% | −22.3 |
| Logroñés | Relegation | 69.8% | 50.5% | −19.3 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champion | 19.4% | 1.4% | −18.0 |
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 22.3% | 39.4% | +17.2 |
