Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 6 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Compostela beat Rayo Vallecano with a 24.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on December 2 (before the first match) against those on December 9 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compostela | Relegation | 33.2% | 18.9% | −14.3 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 54.8% | 42.9% | −12.0 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 31.1% | 19.7% | −11.4 |
| Hércules | Relegation | 89.3% | 78.4% | −10.8 |
| Sevilla | Relegation | 27.0% | 35.7% | +8.7 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 35.4% | 44.1% | +8.7 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 60.3% | 68.5% | +8.2 |
| Real Zaragoza | Relegation | 27.3% | 34.1% | +6.8 |
| Real Oviedo | Relegation | 14.6% | 20.2% | +5.6 |
| Barcelona | Europa League | 30.2% | 35.5% | +5.3 |
