Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 6 home wins, 1 draw and 4 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Rayo Vallecano beat Tenerife with a 18.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on November 25 (before the first match) against those on December 2 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Zaragoza | Relegation | 38.6% | 27.3% | −11.3 |
| Logroñés | Relegation | 69.3% | 58.3% | −11.0 |
| Compostela | Relegation | 24.4% | 33.2% | +8.8 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 14.4% | 8.0% | −6.4 |
| Sevilla | Relegation | 21.3% | 27.0% | +5.7 |
| Sporting Gijón | Relegation | 21.0% | 25.7% | +4.7 |
| Barcelona | Europa League | 25.8% | 30.2% | +4.4 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champions League | 36.9% | 41.2% | +4.2 |
| Real Betis | Champions League | 16.9% | 20.6% | +3.7 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation play-off | 9.5% | 5.8% | −3.7 |
