Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 4 home wins, 4 draws and 3 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Sporting Gijón beat Albacete with a 24.0% chance, Mérida beat Real Betis with a 14.6% chance, and Rayo Vallecano beat Real Madrid with a 14.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on January 14 (before the first match) against those on January 21 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mérida | Relegation | 32.4% | 19.0% | −13.4 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 31.7% | 18.8% | −12.9 |
| Albacete | Relegation | 16.4% | 28.7% | +12.3 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 68.7% | 76.3% | +7.5 |
| Valencia | Europa League | 13.8% | 20.3% | +6.5 |
| Sporting Gijón | Relegation play-off | 15.9% | 10.0% | −5.8 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 69.9% | 64.6% | −5.3 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 69.9% | 64.6% | −5.3 |
| Real Betis | Europa League | 12.0% | 7.3% | −4.8 |
| Real Madrid | Europa League | 10.3% | 5.7% | −4.6 |
