Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 6 home wins, 3 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Sevilla beat Real Zaragoza with a 24.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on November 12 (before the first match) against those on November 19 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 62.6% | 49.3% | −13.3 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 28.6% | 19.6% | −8.9 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 28.6% | 19.6% | −8.9 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 33.9% | 39.8% | +5.9 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 33.9% | 39.8% | +5.9 |
| Albacete | Relegation | 16.0% | 21.4% | +5.4 |
| Espanyol | Champion | 25.0% | 29.3% | +4.4 |
| Espanyol | Champions League | 25.0% | 29.3% | +4.4 |
| Mérida | Relegation | 16.5% | 20.9% | +4.3 |
| Sevilla | Relegation play-off | 9.6% | 5.7% | −3.9 |
