Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 2 draws and 4 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Paysandu beat Criciúma with a 22.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 26 (before the first match) against those on October 1 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coritiba | Promotion | 48.4% | 74.8% | +26.4 |
| América-MG | Relegation | 47.3% | 21.8% | −25.5 |
| Criciúma | Champion | 45.0% | 20.8% | −24.2 |
| Ferroviária | Relegation | 26.5% | 8.1% | −18.4 |
| Criciúma | Promotion | 89.0% | 70.9% | −18.1 |
| Coritiba | Champion | 7.2% | 24.7% | +17.5 |
| Volta Redonda | Relegation | 46.7% | 62.1% | +15.5 |
| Novorizontino | Promotion | 58.2% | 44.2% | −13.9 |
| Botafogo-SP | Relegation | 64.3% | 78.2% | +13.9 |
| Athletic | Relegation | 27.4% | 40.2% | +12.8 |
