Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Juventude beat Guarani with a 23.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on April 30 (before the first match) against those on May 11 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo-SP | Promotion | 58.2% | 17.3% | −40.9 |
| Guarani | Promotion | 58.3% | 18.6% | −39.7 |
| Sport | Promotion | 10.6% | 43.3% | +32.7 |
| Atlético-GO | Promotion | 16.9% | 48.6% | +31.7 |
| Sampaio Corrêa | Relegation | 46.4% | 18.7% | −27.6 |
| Tombense | Relegation | 11.9% | 38.4% | +26.4 |
| Vitória | Promotion | 58.2% | 79.3% | +21.1 |
| Ponte Preta | Relegation | 40.0% | 20.2% | −19.8 |
| Vitória | Champion | 18.4% | 38.1% | +19.7 |
| Mirassol | Promotion | 27.1% | 10.2% | −17.0 |
