Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Vila Nova beat Botafogo-SP with a 24.1% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on May 13 (before the first match) against those on May 20 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Bento | Relegation | 46.4% | 17.8% | −28.6 |
| Botafogo-SP | Promotion | 70.1% | 42.5% | −27.6 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Promotion | 48.8% | 25.8% | −23.0 |
| Vila Nova | Relegation | 32.4% | 12.7% | −19.7 |
| Ponte Preta | Relegation | 32.1% | 12.5% | −19.6 |
| Botafogo-SP | Champion | 31.4% | 13.3% | −18.0 |
| Vitória | Relegation | 20.8% | 38.8% | +18.0 |
| Atlético-GO | Promotion | 13.0% | 31.0% | +18.0 |
| Criciúma | Relegation | 30.8% | 48.7% | +17.9 |
| América-MG | Relegation | 42.2% | 60.1% | +17.9 |
