Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 4 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Red Bull Bragantino beat Tupi with a 23.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on August 31 (before the first match) against those on September 4 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Bragantino | Relegation | 77.1% | 47.0% | −30.0 |
| Tupi | Relegation | 47.1% | 65.4% | +18.2 |
| Brasil de Pelotas | Promotion | 54.7% | 70.3% | +15.6 |
| Londrina | Promotion | 36.7% | 52.0% | +15.3 |
| Luverdense | Relegation | 20.9% | 6.8% | −14.1 |
| Bahia | Promotion | 23.9% | 37.3% | +13.4 |
| Brasil de Pelotas | Champion | 14.3% | 26.8% | +12.4 |
| Vasco | Promotion | 72.2% | 60.1% | −12.2 |
| Joinville | Relegation | 56.2% | 67.5% | +11.3 |
| Vasco | Champion | 29.4% | 18.2% | −11.2 |
