Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 4 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Tupi beat Ceará with a 23.1% chance and Red Bull Bragantino beat Oeste with a 23.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 3 (before the first match) against those on July 10 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Bragantino | Relegation | 68.3% | 42.4% | −25.9 |
| Vasco | Promotion | 50.8% | 75.5% | +24.7 |
| Joinville | Relegation | 75.6% | 50.9% | −24.7 |
| Tupi | Relegation | 78.9% | 55.9% | −23.0 |
| Ceará | Promotion | 67.8% | 48.7% | −19.1 |
| Sampaio Corrêa | Relegation | 57.7% | 76.6% | +19.0 |
| CRB | Promotion | 54.3% | 72.4% | +18.1 |
| Vasco | Champion | 13.2% | 30.3% | +17.1 |
| Ceará | Champion | 24.0% | 10.1% | −13.9 |
| Oeste | Relegation | 7.0% | 18.6% | +11.6 |
