Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 2 draws and 4 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Vitória beat Bahia with a 24.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 27 (before the first match) against those on October 4 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | Promotion | 49.2% | 30.3% | −18.9 |
| América-MG | Promotion | 38.3% | 55.2% | +17.0 |
| Ceará | Relegation | 76.0% | 89.8% | +13.9 |
| Vitória | Promotion | 76.2% | 89.9% | +13.7 |
| Macaé | Relegation | 20.8% | 7.5% | −13.3 |
| Santa Cruz | Promotion | 31.0% | 43.9% | +13.0 |
| Paysandu | Promotion | 50.7% | 40.0% | −10.7 |
| Vitória | Champion | 9.7% | 18.9% | +9.2 |
| Náutico | Promotion | 12.9% | 6.4% | −6.4 |
| Sampaio Corrêa | Promotion | 30.7% | 24.4% | −6.4 |
