Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 1 home win, 5 draws and 4 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Náutico beat Paysandu with a 20.7% chance and Luverdense beat Criciúma with a 24.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 16 (before the first match) against those on September 20 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | Champion | 47.6% | 67.2% | +19.6 |
| Paysandu | Promotion | 74.9% | 61.4% | −13.5 |
| Paysandu | Champion | 19.8% | 8.2% | −11.6 |
| Santa Cruz | Promotion | 24.7% | 34.6% | +9.8 |
| Bahia | Promotion | 57.7% | 51.9% | −5.9 |
| Boa Esporte | Relegation | 84.5% | 89.6% | +5.1 |
| Botafogo | Promotion | 91.9% | 96.6% | +4.7 |
| Náutico | Promotion | 3.8% | 8.3% | +4.6 |
| Vitória | Champion | 13.0% | 9.0% | −4.0 |
| Paraná | Relegation | 4.9% | 1.0% | −3.9 |
