Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 2 home wins, 4 draws and 4 away wins. 4 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Ceará beat CRB with a 18.5% chance, Luverdense beat Macaé with a 24.3% chance, Botafogo beat Vitória with a 24.2% chance, and Red Bull Bragantino beat América-MG with a 19.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 2 (before the first match) against those on September 22 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | Champion | 26.8% | 75.3% | +48.5 |
| Boa Esporte | Relegation | 45.5% | 91.9% | +46.4 |
| Botafogo | Promotion | 71.1% | 98.3% | +27.3 |
| Sampaio Corrêa | Promotion | 59.2% | 39.4% | −19.8 |
| Ceará | Relegation | 87.6% | 69.1% | −18.5 |
| Paysandu | Promotion | 43.4% | 60.8% | +17.4 |
| Oeste | Relegation | 26.6% | 9.6% | −17.0 |
| Náutico | Promotion | 24.7% | 8.6% | −16.1 |
| Sampaio Corrêa | Champion | 16.2% | 2.7% | −13.5 |
| ABC | Relegation | 78.9% | 90.9% | +12.0 |
