Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 2 draws and 4 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: América-MG beat Sampaio Corrêa with a 22.0% chance, Mogi Mirim beat Boa Esporte with a 20.0% chance, and Paysandu beat Santa Cruz with a 24.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 6 (before the first match) against those on September 8 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampaio Corrêa | Promotion | 58.2% | 37.8% | −20.5 |
| Boa Esporte | Relegation | 54.0% | 67.9% | +13.9 |
| Paysandu | Promotion | 57.6% | 71.3% | +13.7 |
| Ceará | Relegation | 74.0% | 60.8% | −13.2 |
| América-MG | Promotion | 22.2% | 34.4% | +12.1 |
| Vitória | Promotion | 49.4% | 60.8% | +11.5 |
| Santa Cruz | Promotion | 22.1% | 10.7% | −11.4 |
| Sampaio Corrêa | Champion | 14.9% | 5.0% | −9.8 |
| Mogi Mirim | Relegation | 91.4% | 81.9% | −9.4 |
| Náutico | Promotion | 20.3% | 11.8% | −8.6 |
