Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Botafogo beat América-MG with a 24.3% chance and Ceará beat Macaé with a 17.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on August 12 (before the first match) against those on August 16 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boa Esporte | Relegation | 35.4% | 22.4% | −13.0 |
| Botafogo | Promotion | 65.4% | 78.0% | +12.6 |
| América-MG | Promotion | 67.6% | 55.1% | −12.6 |
| ABC | Relegation | 62.8% | 74.4% | +11.6 |
| Botafogo | Champion | 19.1% | 29.6% | +10.5 |
| América-MG | Champion | 21.7% | 11.8% | −10.0 |
| Paraná | Relegation | 27.0% | 17.9% | −9.1 |
| Náutico | Promotion | 22.6% | 31.6% | +9.0 |
| Sampaio Corrêa | Promotion | 46.0% | 37.8% | −8.3 |
| Vitória | Promotion | 71.7% | 79.7% | +8.0 |
