Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 4 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Ponte Preta beat Guarani with a 24.6% chance and Grêmio Barueri beat Icasa with a 23.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 8 (before the first match) against those on October 15 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte Preta | Promotion | 74.2% | 89.3% | +15.1 |
| Sport | Promotion | 29.0% | 17.2% | −11.9 |
| Guaratinguetá | Promotion | 67.8% | 58.3% | −9.5 |
| São Caetano | Relegation | 29.8% | 21.3% | −8.5 |
| Icasa | Relegation | 17.8% | 25.6% | +7.8 |
| Vila Nova | Relegation | 88.0% | 93.0% | +4.9 |
| Guarani | Relegation | 10.4% | 14.6% | +4.2 |
| Grêmio Barueri | Promotion | 2.8% | 6.7% | +4.0 |
| Ponte Preta | Champion | 1.4% | 5.2% | +3.8 |
| Grêmio Barueri | Relegation | 3.8% | 0.4% | −3.3 |
