Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Náutico beat América-MG with a 23.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 13 (before the first match) against those on July 17 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Caetano | Promotion | 38.3% | 24.8% | −13.5 |
| América-MG | Promotion | 36.5% | 23.7% | −12.8 |
| Figueirense | Promotion | 50.7% | 63.0% | +12.3 |
| Santo André | Relegation | 27.5% | 16.4% | −11.1 |
| Duque de Caxias | Relegation | 54.2% | 64.0% | +9.8 |
| Portuguesa | Promotion | 28.9% | 38.3% | +9.4 |
| Náutico | Promotion | 46.4% | 55.7% | +9.3 |
| Coritiba | Promotion | 39.3% | 48.5% | +9.1 |
| ASA | Relegation | 16.1% | 7.4% | −8.7 |
| Bahia | Promotion | 16.0% | 24.1% | +8.1 |
