Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 2 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Brasiliense beat Guaratinguetá with a 20.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 30 (before the first match) against those on November 2 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brasiliense | Relegation | 84.0% | 62.4% | −21.6 |
| Ipatinga | Relegation | 59.4% | 80.5% | +21.1 |
| Figueirense | Champion | 12.9% | 30.6% | +17.7 |
| América-MG | Promotion | 79.3% | 66.5% | −12.8 |
| Bahia | Champion | 26.6% | 14.0% | −12.5 |
| Vila Nova | Relegation | 19.4% | 7.9% | −11.4 |
| Sport | Promotion | 25.2% | 36.0% | +10.8 |
| Náutico | Relegation | 31.6% | 41.3% | +9.7 |
| Santo André | Relegation | 93.3% | 87.8% | −5.5 |
| Figueirense | Promotion | 92.6% | 98.1% | +5.5 |
